EU and Swedish Economy 2012

It continues to look tough for the EU economy 2012 and the years to follow. Next year the development in the euro zone will basically stand still, according to the European Commission’s autumn forecast. But Sweden’s economy remains good compared to other countries. The GDP growth is expected to be 0.1 percent for the whole Euro area and 0.4 percent on average for the 27 EU countries.

2014 will see some growth in pace: 1.4 percent in the Eurozone and 1.6 percent for the entire EU.

In the meanwhile unemployment will remains at a high level. In the euro area unemployment is expected to be almost 12 percent in both 2013 and 2014. Across the whole EU area the unemployment is expected to be one percentage point lower.

But the picture of the economy is very different for different countries.

The Swedish economy stands strong compared too many other countries. Growth is forecast to be 1.9 percent next year before rising to 2.5 percent in the following year 2014.

The Swedish national debt will remains well below the EU average of 36.2 and 34.1 percent over the next two years. Also the unemployment rate will remain below the EU average and is expected to be 7.4 percent and 6.9 percent.

The Baltic States are best in class in terms of national growth. All three are expected to grow by between three and four per cent of GDP in the next two years. But unemployment will still remain at a high level in the region.

But for 6 of the 17 Euro countries the European Commission forecasts recession for the year to come; these countries are Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Italy, Portugal and Slovenia.

Five Euro countries have a national debt of over 100 percent of GDP; those countries are Belgium, Ireland, Greece, Italy and Portugal. In 2014 Cyprus is also expected to joins to this crowd with large debts in comparison to GDP. Greece’s situation is particularly alarming for the coming years; the national debt of Greece is estimated to be in the area of just over 188 percent of GDP in both 2013 and 2014.

Greece and Spain stand out in the forecast for unemployment. The Spanish unemployment rate is expected to be 26.6 and 26.1 percent over the next two years, while unemployment in Greece is expected to rise to 24.0 and 22.2 percent.